The metropolitan area most likely to experience supply surges in seniors housing are Boston, Denver, Houston, Atlanta, San Antonio and Riverside, CA. That’s what professional real estate services firm Rockwood Pacific found in a new analysis.

Some senior living markets are regularly subject to supply surges, whereas others appear to be more protected from them. In its analysis, Rockwood Pacific aimed to help seniors housing developers decipher the available information and forecast for the long term.

The company, working with Senior Housing Analytics, developed a “surge score” for assisted living and independent living based on the frequency and magnitude of high new openings ratios compared with the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care’s NIC 30 list related to the country’s largest metropolitan markets. U.S. Census Bureau data also were used. Many markets prone to supply surges in assisted living also been prone to supply surges in independent living, the data revealed.

“Senior living supply is but one component driving overall market performance, albeit an important component,” wrote Francesco “Frank” Rockwood. “This framework is not expected to be particularly helpful in forecasting near-term changes in occupancy and rent growth, however, it does appear to have merit in gauging risk and in valuing properties.”