The coronavirus pandemic’s impact is likely to be worse than originally expected by the senior living industry and has the potential to push national occupancy rates below 80% for the first time ever, according to senior care financial expert Steve Monroe.
In a blog post Wednesday, Monroe estimated that occupancy in the sector could drop by an average of 100 to 200 basis points a month through the end of June, with some operators faring better, and others much worse.
His predictions align with others who have suggested that the pandemic may have longer-lasting occupancy consequences. Earlier this month. BMO Capital Markets forecasted that senior living occupancy could fall by half in the next year. Speculations notwithstanding, data from the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care’s NIC MAP data service already show that senior living (independent living and assisted living combined) occupancy fell slightly in the first quarter, to 87.7%.
“The good news is that despite the current negative publicity surrounding the skilled nursing sector, our industry is not going away and will learn from this,” Monroe noted.
