The “financial and social devastation” of the coronavirus pandemic will hit the second quarter the hardest and likely drag the country into a recession, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted Sunday.

The financial services firm revised its quarterly gross domestic product estimates in a note to clients late Sunday, lowering its expectations for near-term expansion and upgrading projections for later in the year. Economic growth will halt in the first quarter before contracting 5% in the second quarter, the analysts wrote. The slump will be followed by a strong rebound in the second half of the year, they added.

Although most recessions include two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, a looser definition used by the National Bureau of Economic Research likely would deem Goldman’s projection sufficient for an economic recession, the bank said.