Although COVID-19 deaths in assisted living communities and skilled nursing facilities have declined sharply in recent months, low vaccination rates in some parts of the nation are leading to a rise in COVID-19 variants, hindering an end to the pandemic, according to researchers.
In June, states reported a 96% decline in coronavirus deaths and a 97% decline in cases in assisted living communities, nursing homes and other congregate care facilities since December 2020, according to an analysis from Kaiser Family Foundation researchers. This compares with an 82% overall drop in coronavirus deaths in the general community and a 93% drop in cases.
The rollout of the Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care program contributed to the drop in numbers, delivering almost 8 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to nursing home and assisted living residents and staff members between December and April, the authors noted.
But the authors also noted that the highly transmissible nature of the delta variant may affect the trend of decreased long-term care cases and deaths.
“While long-term care facility cases and deaths have been steadily trending downward since the vaccine rollout, there are still several factors that prevent the long-term care crisis from coming to an end, including the rise of the delta variant and low vaccination rates in some parts of the country — both in and out of long-term care facilities,” they wrote.
According to KFF researchers, a handful of states saw an uptick in deaths, and 12 states reported higher case numbers in June than in previous months, according to the authors. Five states reported average weekly death rates higher than earlier months — Colorado (April), Georgia (May), New York (September), Wisconsin (July) and Louisiana (April).
Just one state, Rhode Island, reported no COVID cases in long-term care, whereas 12 states reported higher average weekly cases in June compared to May. Those cases are mainly in staff members, reflecting a higher share of unvaccinated staff than residents in long-term care settings.
Data anomalies at the state level present another issue in tracking and understanding COVID-19 data. The authors advocated for building data systems that can be leveraged during cruises to target policy response, which will be important for policymakers moving forward.
The analysis did not include death data from Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, Maine, Missouri, Nebraska, Vermont, West Virginia or Wyoming nor case data from Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, West Virginia or Wyoming.
