Occupancy rates for independent and assisted living appear to be peaking, according to Chris McGraw, senior research analyst for the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care. “NIC’s forecasts for the next four quarters suggest that occupancy is likely to hold steady at its current rate,” he writes in the latest issue of the NIC Insider newsletter.

Inventory growth could cause downward pressure on occupancy rates in both independent and assisted living, he adds, but especially for assisted living. The flu season also may come into play, McGraw writes. “The 2013 and 2015 flu seasons were quite severe, and absorption (and consequently occupancy) was negatively impacted,” he says. “A similar severity for this coming season could push occupancy rates lower.”