Certain markets will be saturated with housing for sale over the next 20 years as baby boomers’ homes are sold, according to a new analysis from Zillow.
One reason for the turnover, the real estate website suggested, will be death, but moves to senior living communities also will increase housing availability — if older adults can sell their abodes to younger adults.
Today, about one-third of homes in the United States are owned by those 60 and older, Zillow said. Across the country by 2037, 27% of currently owner-occupied homes will become available, with some markets being “flooded” more than others, the analysis found.
From 2007 to 2017, approximately 730,000 homes were released into the market each year by older adults aged 60 or more years. In the 10-year period ending in 2027, however, the number is expected to increase to 920,000 per year, and from 2027 to 2037, it is expected to increase to 1.17 million annually.
One-fifth to one-third of the current owner-occupied housing stock is predicted to be affected in every metropolitan area analyzed.
Retirement draws such as Florida and Arizona probably will see the biggest effects, but Rust Belt areas, where older adults make up a larger share of the population, also will be “heavily impacted,” Zillow predicted.
“Far less affected” will be Salt Lake City, where a much smaller share of homeowners are older, and Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Houston, which have relatively affordable costs of living that tend to attract younger residents.
The areas most affected by 2027 will include Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater and Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Port St. Lucie in Florida, where 15.2% of current owner-occupied homes are expected to be released to the market by those aged 60 or more. The Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL, and Dayton-Springfield-Sidney, OH, areas also will have more than 14% of homes released to the market during that time, Zillow predicted.
By 2037, those markets as well as the Knoxville – Morristown – Sevierville, TN, and the Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV areas each will have more than 30% of older adult-owned homes on the market, according to the analysis.
Results within metro areas will vary, Zillow noted.