With an “uncertain” road to recovery, National Health Investors President and CEO Eric Mendelsohn said during Tuesday’s fourth-quarter and year-end earnings call that he sees the challenges presented by the pandemic as temporary.
Weakened rent collection in the fourth quarter has led some analysts to express concerns about how quickly National Health Investors will be able to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet executives at the firm are defending the real estate investment trust’s resilience amid a challenging year, and they confirm its commitment to the industry and confidence in the growth potential of the senior housing sector.
An analysis released Wednesday from investment banking firm Mizuho Securities USA includes a downgrade of real estate investment trust National Health Investors to “underperform” from “neutral.” The change stems from concerns around the larger senior housing operators in NHI’s portfolio, which either have tight rent coverage or already have been granted rent deferrals.
Although the COVID-19 vaccines are expected to become more widely available as the first quarter continues, investment banking firm BMO Capital Markets is predicting an elongated recovery for the senior living industry, with cash flows not recovering to pre-pandemic levels until about 2025. That’s according to an analysis released Thursday by the firm.
As ground zero for the pandemic, 2020 was a challenging year for healthcare real estate investment trusts. In the first quarter, for example, healthcare REITs saw a 36.8% decline — much of this stemming from COVID-19-related woes within the senior living and skilled nursing sectors. Recent positive news on vaccine approval and its subsequent rollout within the sectors helped healthcare REITs regain a good chunk of this loss, however, ending the year at a 9.8% decline compared with 2019, according to Nareit daily returns.
Even as the first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are set to be administered this week, many in the senior living industry are predicting a long, dark winter ahead, with continuing occupancy and move-in rate declines, noted speakers at a Thursday webinar hosted by Marcus & Millichap.
The future of senior living post-pandemic is healthcare-based, and it will be more difficult for operators who don’t take that approach to maintain a leg up, speakers said Thursday at a senior housing investment webinar hosted by Marcus & Millichap.
More than 50% of seniors have been targeted by Social Security scams in the past three months … Senior living communities helping drive demand for ultraviolet-C lighting … Unemployment insurance linked to fewer social needs, less healthcare delay, and better mental health during pandemic … NHI provides $22M development loan for construction of Wisconsin senior living community … Racanelli Construction completes $12.6M New Jersey seniors housing project
As Nareit’s REITworld: 2020 Annual Conference wrapped up last week, analysts at Mizuho Securities USA say they remain positive on the skilled nursing sector given the promising vaccine news, strong government support of the industry and an improving acquisitions outlook. And although the vaccine news also is a major positive for senior housing, analysts also worry that the recent rally in the sector’s stocks may be reflecting a far rosier recovery than likely is to occur, and that the 2021 earnings outlook may disappoint.
Despite strong rent collections in October and November, Murfreesboro, TN-based National Health Investors may be in for some tough quarters ahead as its senior housing portfolio faces additional stress due to COVID-19 surges among its tenants.
