Staffing at skilled nursing facilities and community care facilities for the elderly is still below pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation. The numbers lag behind industry projections. 

“Employment had been growing in every health service industry between 2017 and early 2020 except for nursing care facilities, where the number of workers had been declining at an average rate of –0.1% per month,” the authors noted. “Nursing homes employed 1.37 million people in December of 2022, which is –10.5% below the projected 1.54 million.”

Community care facilities for the elderly, however, saw the biggest percent difference in December actual versus projected employment (based on pre-pandemic growth rates), at –12.5%.

Other sectors within the healthcare industry began to recover from staffing shortages by the summer of 2020, but staffing levels at nursing homes and community elder care facilities continue to rest below levels seen in February 2020 and before, the authors said.

Nursing homes have seen a 13.3% drop in employment since February 2020. Community elder care facilities have seen a 6.5% decrease since the start of the pandemic. Employment in those facilities hit bottom in November 2021, according to KFF, and has increased only slightly since that time.

“While health employment in many facilities has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, the effects of the pandemic linger. Employment in most areas had been growing steadily before March 2020, and jobs have not yet returned to where they likely would have been, based on pre-pandemic job growth rates,” the authors wrote.

The low staffing rates in healthcare are an anomaly, according to historic precedent. The industry traditionally has been viewed as being recession-proof. In past recessions, many providers have found that hiring and retaining staff members gets easier because employees are more concerned with stability than advancement. That interest has been helped by other consumer-driven businesses cutting back on hiring.

During the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009), for example, health sector employment continued to increase – from 13.1 million in December 2007 to 13.4 million in December 2008, and then 13.7 million in December 2009, according to KFF.

For additional coverage of the report, see McKnight’s Senior Living.